Assessing Rural Development Vulnerability Index: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Post-Poverty Alleviation Areas in Hunan, China

Rural post-poverty alleviation areas are not on a solid developmental footing and therefore remain at risk of returning to poverty in the midst of rapid urbanization. Vulnerability assessment of socio-ecological systems is critical for identifying risks and enhancing resilience in rural areas transitioning out of poverty. Based on research data from 2012, 2017, and 2022 in the post-poverty alleviation areas of Hunan Province, this research establishes a Vulnerability-Scoping-Diagram (VSD) assessment framework for rural development vulnerability and Spatially-Explicit-Resilience-Vulnerability (SERV) analysis model from a socio-ecological system perspective. It comprehensively analyzes the spatial and temporal variations of the Rural Development Vulnerability Index (RDVI) in the study area. Geodetector is used to explore the main factors influencing the spatial and temporal variability of RDVI, and vulnerability type zones are classified by combining the dominant elements method. The findings indicate that: (1) The rural development vulnerability index of post-poverty alleviation areas in Hunan Province has obvious characteristics of spatial and temporal differentiation. The RDVI in western Hunan and southern Hunan is always high, while the RDVI in ChangZhuTan and Dongting Lake regions decreases year by year. (2) The RDVI of post-poverty alleviation areas in Hunan Province is determined by the three dimensions of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability, exhibiting significant spatial and temporal variations. (3) Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that areas with similar rural socio-ecological vulnerability in post-poverty alleviation areas of Hunan Province were significantly clustered spatially. (4) The core influencing factors of RDVI in Hunan's post-poverty alleviation areas have shifted from natural disaster risk to multiple risk dimensions encompassing social resource load and ecological environment risk superimposition, resulting in more complex and diversified influencing factors. (5) By combining results from the RDVI assessment with the dominant elements method, the regions can be classified into multiple vulnerability type districts dominated by multiple elements or single-element dominance, leading to corresponding development suggestions. The study aims to examine the process of changes in vulnerability within rural development in post-poverty alleviation areas and its causal factors from a socio-ecological system perspective. This will provide a foundation for policy formulation to consolidate the results of post-poverty alleviation and promote the sustainable development of rural areas.