Evaluation of Urban Sprawl Trends and Different Scenarios Using Smart Growth Indicators: A Case Study of Karaj, Iran

A key feature of the relationship between ecosystem services is the spatiotemporal distribution pattern. This study examined the sprawl of Karaj City and provided a framework for analyzing the indicators of smart urban growth, evaluating the current state of the city in terms of its ecosystem structure and functional indicators, quantifying land dynamics, and measuring land cover intensity. Accordingly, to evaluate the spatiotemporal effects of urban sprawl on land use and cover, utilizing the smart growth paradigm, we created an integrated modeling approach for Karaj, its effects on carbon storage and sequestration over the period from 2000 to 2020, and predicted scenarios from 2020 to 2040. The findings showed that considerable changes occurred in the area, which have impacted the ecosystem and human life. The expansion of built-up areas, coupled with a reduction in green space, agriculture, and bare lands, raises the likelihood of natural hazards and alters the carbon storage and sequestration levels during ecosystem service periods.