Monte Carlo Simulation for Enhancing the Schedule Completion Forecast of Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction Project

Some construction projects in Indonesia have been experiencing frequent major delays, and there is an urgent need to perform a comprehensive schedule forecast to anticipate them. This study aims to enhance the forecast of the project-completion schedule of a major railway construction project in Indonesia, with considerations of the identified project risks. Using structured interviews of practitioners and experts, this study has identified key risks in the Phase II Construction project. The @RISK V8.5.1 software was used to run Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate the scheduling forecast more accurately with the PERT method. The results of the scheduling simulation on the inherent key risks that affect key activities in the critical path show that there are additional days due to pre-mitigation during the construction of the project, ranging from 130.81% to 136.25% of the initial contract completion duration to approximately 95.82% to 102.23% of the original contract completion duration. This research provides a way not only to identify and prioritize the risks but also to quantify them to estimate the project completion schedule more up to 95% accuracy using Monte Carlo Simulation, where the model can be used to plan and monitor the risks of future projects.