Agricultural Value Added, Renewable Energy, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from Turkey

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions for the period 1968-2022 in Turkey was evaluated within the framework of the EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) hypothesis. In addition, the impacts of renewable energy consumption and agricultural value added on carbon emissions were analyzed using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The validity of the results was also tested using the FMOLS and DOLS methods. The findings confirmed the existence of a cointegration relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income, renewable energy consumption, and agricultural value added. Long-term analyses indicate that renewable energy consumption reduces carbon emissions, whereas growth in agricultural value added leads to an increase in emissions. In addition, it has been determined that the EKC hypothesis is valid in both the long and short terms and that increases in per capita income raise emissions up to a certain threshold and have a mitigating effect when this threshold is exceeded. The results of the short-term analysis showed that the effects of renewable energy consumption vary across periods, and that agricultural value added increases emissions in the short term. This study provides empirical evidence for Turkey by incorporating sectoral variables within the EKC framework and offers meaningful insights for policymakers regarding the environmental impacts of agricultural value added and renewable energy use in the context of a developing country. Accordingly, fiscal policy instruments such as green taxation, carbon credit trading mechanisms, and financial and agricultural subsidies should be more effectively utilized in Turkey to support structural transformation in agriculture and promote the use of clean energy, in line with the findings that suggest the need for targeted agricultural and energy policies aligned with Turkey's SDG commitments.