EFFECTS OF LAND-USE VARIATIONS ON LANDSCAPE PATTERNS AND ESVS FROM 2000 TO 2022: A PERSPECTIVE ON URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS OF THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN, CHINA

Significant land use/cover changes due to urban agglomeration expansion affect ecological services. Taking the Yellow River urban agglomeration as an example, this study analyzed landscape pattern evolution at patch and landscape scales. The Markov - FLUS model simulated the 2030 - 2035 land use pattern in the southern Yellow River Basin urban agglomerations in China. The equivalent factor approach determined the historical evolution and trend of Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs). The following results were obtained: 1) Construction land use grew (28% transfer rate), while cropland and forest land decreased (44.08% and 13.66% transfer rates). 2) Water and impervious areas increased the most, grassland and shrub areas declined the most. 3) Urban landscape expansion showed a generally uniform distribution, stable proportion structure, and complex patch shapes; human activities caused spatial heterogeneity. 4) Future land use change follows the current pattern. 5) The 2030 - 2035 ESV forecast shows an 8.15% - 7.93% drop compared to 2022 and adjusting regulation and support service values can increase ESVs. This study helps to understand urban expansion and ESV losses in rapidly developing areas and improve urban planning regulations.