Declining Fertility, Human Capital Investment, and Economic Sustainability

被引:0
作者
Myrskyla, Mikko [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Hellstrand, Julia [1 ,2 ]
Lappo, Sampo [4 ]
Lorenti, Angelo [1 ,3 ]
Nisen, Jessica [1 ,2 ,5 ]
Rao, Ziwei [2 ,3 ]
Tikanmaki, Heikki [4 ]
机构
[1] Max Planck Inst Demog Res, Rostock, Germany
[2] Univ Helsinki, Helsinki Inst Demog & Populat Hlth, Helsinki, Finland
[3] Max Planck Univ Helsinki Ctr Social Inequal Popula, Rostock, Germany
[4] Finnish Ctr Pens, Helsinki, Finland
[5] Univ Turku, INVEST Res Flagship, Turku, Finland
基金
欧洲研究理事会; 芬兰科学院;
关键词
Low fertility; Human capital investment; Economic sustainability; Finland; Dynamic longitudinal microsimulation model; COHORT SIZE; COUNTRIES; EDUCATION; GROWTH; EUROPE; LIFE;
D O I
10.1215/00703370-11858484
中图分类号
C921 [人口统计学];
学科分类号
摘要
Future fertility is a key input when charting the sustainability of social security systems, and declining fertility is often expected to put pressure on economic indicators, such as pension burden. Such expectations are based on a narrow view of the impact of fertility on the economy, focusing on age structure. Dynamic impacts-for instance, the potential for increased human capital for smaller cohorts-are mostly ignored. We use a dynamic longitudinal microsimulation model to explore the extent to which investments in human capital could offset the adverse economic impact of low fertility. Our research context is Finland, the fastest aging European country and the site of dramatic fertility declines and stagnant educational levels in the 2020s. We find that an ambitious but simple human capital investment strategy that keeps the total invest ment constant despite declining cohort size, thereby increasing per capita investment, can offset the negative impact of a smaller labor force on the pension burden. Human capital investment not only reduces pension burden but also increases working years, pension income, retirement years, and longevity. Policies focusing on human capital investment are likely a viable strategy to maintain economic sustainability.
引用
收藏
页码:489 / 514
页数:26
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