Simulating Land Use Through Integrated Soil and Water Ecosystem Services: Case Study of Yanguan City in China

Rapid urbanization and climate change are driving significant shifts in land use patterns, which pose challenges for maintaining ecosystem services such as water supply and soil retention. This study explores the impact of land use structures on water supply, soil retention, and carbon sequestration by simulating multiple land use scenarios forecasted for the year 2050 in Yangquan City. Using multi-objective planning methods and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, the research examines changes in land use, including an increase in urban construction land and a reduction in cultivated land, addressing future demands for population accommodation and food production. The findings reveal a hierarchical land distribution centered around urban areas, with cultivated land, grassland, and forest land in succession. As greenhouse gas emissions rise, water yield and soil retention also increase. Under different climate conditions, Yangquan City's water yield and soil retention demonstrate significant variation, with higher emissions linked to more substantial increases in both water yield and soil retention. These results highlight the dynamic interactions between land use changes and ecosystem services in response to climate change.