Governance and Intercommunal Armed Conflict: Evidence from 49 African Countries

This study investigates the relationship between governance and intercommunal conflict in 49 African countries over the period 1990-2020, using a correlated random effects model. The results indicate that political stability, rule of law, and regulatory quality significantly reduce the likelihood of intercommunal conflict, both in the short and long term. Ethnic fragmentation is found to directly increase the probability of conflict, but this effect is moderated by effective governance. Economic development also reduces conflict risk. These findings remain robust across sensitivity checks. The paper recommends policies to address ethnic fragmentation and enhance governance to reduce conflict risk.