Autonomy in Conflict: Technology, Complexity, Ethics, and Policy Implications

The transformative role of autonomy-relevant technologies in modern conflict is examined, focusing on technological advancements, complexity, ethics and policy implications. The foundations of autonomous capabilities in conflict comprise high-grade, autonomy-relevant technologies that integrate human-machine interactions. Key technological milestones include AI-powered systems, component miniaturization, and enhanced data processing capabilities, enabling autonomous systems to perform complex tasks with increased precision and speed. Autonomy provides substantial value for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and targeted strikes, significantly impacting modern conflicts and offering benefits such as reduced risk exposure, accelerating decision-making in time-critical operations, enhanced precision, speed, persistence, endurance, and scale. Autonomy reduces cognitive operator load and enables missions that would otherwise be unfeasible or unaffordable. This work addresses system complexity challenges, which can hinder human operators in predicting behavior, intervening when necessary, and maintaining effective and meaningful control. Trust, transparency, ethical considerations, and interdependence between human operators and autonomous systems are essential for effective deployment. European initiatives, such as the European Defence Agency's Action Plan on Autonomous Systems, emphasizes the necessity for developing autonomous technologies for military capabilities, underscoring the requirement for long-term investments in scientific research, training, and innovation to maintain a strategic advantage. Emerging technologies, such as neuromorphic processing and machine learning, are fundamental for developing future autonomous systems capable of adapting to dynamic environments and executing missions with minimal human intervention. In conclusion, the evolution of autonomous technologies represents a paradigm shift, necessitating robust ethical and policy frameworks and continuous innovation to address the complexities of modern conflict.