Risk-Predictive Planning for Off-Road Autonomy

Efficiently navigating off-road environments presents a number of challenges arising from their unstructured nature. In the absence of high-fidelity maps, occlusions from obstacles and terrain lead to limited information available to inform planning decisions. Furthermore, resolution and latency limitations of real-world perception systems lead to potentially of degraded perception performance when traversing such environments at high speeds. We address these problems by proposing an algorithm which plans trajectories while anticipating future observations. In particular, we introduce a model which learns to predict the evolution of future riskmaps conditioned on the future path and speed profile of the vehicle. The model is trained in a self-supervised fashion using recordings of vehicle trajectories. We then present an algorithm which leverages a way to efficiently query the model along candidate paths and speed profiles to produce time-optimal trajectories while maintaining a bound on the future expected risk. We assess the predictive performance of our risk model through a comparison with real vehicle driving logs. Furthermore, our closed-loop simulations of several benchmark scenarios demonstrate how the behavior of our planner leads to qualitatively distinct trajectories, leading to improvements in both success rate and speed by up to 60%.