Basic Innovation Indicators Affecting Exports According to Technology Intensity: An Application Based on Time Series Analysis for Türkiye

Analysis of the impact of innovation on exports is a significant topic in the international economics literature. Ceteris paribus, the effect of innovation on exports according to technology intensity is crucial for countries' competitiveness, foreign trade earnings, and development levels. Although Turkey, as an open country, has an export-oriented production structure and active export activities, its export performance remains relatively low. This study examines the effects of key innovation indicators such as R&D expenditures, patent application numbers, Information Technology Communications (ICT), and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) on exports according to technology intensity. For this purpose, predictions were made using the Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model, using annual data from the period 1990-2021 for Turkey. Variance decomposition and & imath;mpulse-response functions were employed to identify the relationships between the variables in accordance with the VAR model estimates. In the Variance Decomposition analysis, it was determined that the most effective innovation indicator in exports according to the technology intensity is R&D expenditures. The impulse-response functions indicate that the main innovation indicator affecting the export of medium-high-tech products is ICT, while the indicator affecting the export of high-tech products is R&D expenditures. Furthermore, it has been determined that the positive effect on future period export performance of past period performance of the export of medium- high-tech products is higher than the effect of the export of high-tech products. The analysis results recommend that the level of technology exports influenced by innovation and the ability to gain the international competitive advantage in Turkey is low.