Techno-economic evaluation of landowner participation in willow biomass production for a biorefinery

This study presents a techno-economic evaluation of landowner participation in willow biomass production for a biorefinery in Northern New York State, focusing on its influence on the minimum selling price (MSP) and the scalability of biorefinery operations. Using the EcoWillow 4.0 S model, the research evaluates MSP trends across participation rates ranging from 1 % to 39 % in five counties. The findings reveal a non-linear relationship between participation and MSP, where initial increases in landowner engagement (1 %-5 %) lead to a substantial MSP reduction from $98/Mg to $90/Mg. Beyond 20 % participation, the MSP stabilizes around $88/Mg, suggesting that economies of scale in harvesting and logistics have been maximized. A sensitivity analysis identifies willow yield, truckload capacity, and harvest rate as the most critical factors affecting MSP. This highlights the importance of optimizing agronomic practices to improve yield and enhancing logistical efficiency to reduce transportation costs. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo simulation, which generated 10,000 MSP estimates, reveals a normal distribution with a mean of 88.41 $/Mg and a standard deviation of $8.76 $/Mg indicating moderate variability of the potential feedstock costs. These findings underscore the critical role of landowner engagement in achieving a cost-competitive willow biomass production and ensuring supply consistency, offering a bioenergy system planning that can be adapted to other regions globally.