Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in the Urban Agglomeration on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains: A Perspective of Socio-Ecological Drivers

Understanding the combined impacts of socio-ecological drivers on trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services (EST/ESS) is vital for stakeholders in regional planning and governance. However, limited knowledge of the underlying mechanisms hinders our ability to assess the impact of socio-ecological drivers configurations on EST/ESS during processes of regional natural and social progress. In this study, we established a comprehensive research model for delineating functional areas predicated on the geographic distribution of ecosystem services (ESs) to explore the mechanisms of the interrelationships among socio-ecological drivers and EST/ESS. First, we quantified the spatiotemporal distributions of four ES indicators from 2000 to 2020 and determined three distinct functional zones grounded in ecosystem service bundles (ESBs) and regional EST/ESS relationships. Significant spatial heterogeneity of the EST/ESS occurred throughout the study area. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to explore the mechanisms through which the socio-ecological drivers affected the EST/ESS, and it was found that the mechanisms and magnitudes of these influences varied significantly among the identified functional zones. Natural, physical, and biological factors, along with socioeconomic and climate factors, were found to directly or indirectly affect the EST/ESS through mediating variables such as vegetation cover and landscape configuration. Based on these findings, this study provides actionable guidance for regional zoning and management policies aimed at achieving balanced and sustainable development of ecological and social systems. Conducted in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, this study offers valuable practical references for the sustainable growth of large-scale urban agglomerations in China and globally.