National-Scale analysis of transit-oriented development levels at high-speed rail stations in China

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), a sustainable urban development strategy emphasizing integration between transportation and land-use planning centered around public transportation hubs, is increasingly employed around High-Speed Rail (HSR) stations. Despite this trend, there is a lack of quantitative evaluation on factors affecting TOD levels around HSR stations, and quantitative assessment on TOD levels around HSR stations at a national scale remains limited. This study aims to quantitatively assess TOD levels around HSR stations in 31 provincial capital cities in China, adopting a national-scale perspective, with a focus on identifying key factors influencing TOD levels at both inner-city and suburban HSR stations. The findings reveal significant regional disparities, with eastern coastal regions exhibiting substantially higher TOD levels compared to the central and western inland areas. Furthermore, the analysis highlights distinct influencing factors: TOD levels at inner-city HSR stations are strongly associated with the provincial economic structure, whereas suburban HSR stations are primarily shaped by the implementation of HSR-supportive policies. Given the trend of constructing HSR stations in suburban areas, the study highlights the potential for improving TOD around suburban HSR stations through flexible policy guidance, emphasizing the need for aligned policies to promote station-city integration and optimize urban functionality.