Christian Nationalism and the Vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election: A State-Level Analysis

Within the US electoral system, where states are conceived of and vote as discrete entities, state-level characteristics are vital to consider because they reflect sociocultural context influencing voter behaviour. Though numerous studies have documented the connection between Christian nationalist ideology and voting for Donald Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 at the individual level, our study is the first to consider how state-level estimates of Christian nationalism correspond to state-level voting for Trump in 2024. Even after accounting for a host of state-level religious, political, economic and ideological characteristics, state-level estimates of Christian nationalism are significantly associated with increased vote share for Trump in the 2024 election. We also find this is especially the case in states with lower average educational attainment. Findings suggest state-level support for Christian nationalism was particularly influential in states with greater working-class populations, thus reflecting its role as ideological context for Trump's populist appeal.