Spatial-temporal evolution pattern, driving mechanism and prediction of dietary sustainability in China

The future of human and planetary health is envisioned as an advance toward dietary sustainability targets, i.e., diets that are nutritionally secure, socially equitable and environmentally sustainable. Dietary sustainability is comprehensive and dynamic, but there is a lack of research on spatial-temporal evolution analysis, driving mechanisms, and prediction of dietary sustainability from different dimensions to provide a comprehensive understanding of the food system and policy recommendations for its transformation. Here we developed an integrated framework of dietary sustainability, demonstrated it in China in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, and conducted projections. We found that the national dietary sustainability index score (an aggregate score representing the overall performance of dietary sustainability in three dimensions) was at a moderate level and the spatial variation was significant, with high scores in the north and east, low scores in the south and west. The dietary sustainability index score increased by 35.33 % from 2005 to 2020, and the spatial variation became narrower. However, dietary sustainability in nutritional security dimension decreased in individual developed provinces. Urbanization, economic development and education significantly contributed to dietary sustainability. It is projected that by 2100, the dietary sustainability index score will improve by 61.62 % if significant investments are made in health, education and institutions. These findings underscore the importance of studying the dietary sustainability and call for dissemination of healthy dietary patterns, building high-quality farmland in an era of urbanization, investing in the resilience of the food supply chain, and enhancing connectivity between provinces to improve human well-being.