How does Bike Absence Influence Mode Shifts Among Dockless Bike-Sharing Users? Evidence From Nanjing, China

Dockless bike-sharing users often encounter difficulties in finding available bikes at their preferred times and locations. This study examines the determinants of the users' mode shifts in the context of bike absence, using survey data from Nanjing, China. An integrated choice and latent variable model based on multinomial logit was employed to investigate the impact of socio-demographic characteristics, trip attributes, and psychological factors on travel mode choices. Mode choice models were estimated with seven mode alternatives, including bike-sharing-related choices (i.e., waiting in place, picking up bikes on the way, and picking up bikes on a detour), bus, taxi, riding hailing, and walking. The findings showed that under shared-bike unavailability, users preferred to pick up bikes on the way rather than take detours, with buses and walking as favored alternatives to shared bikes. Lower-educated users tended to wait in place, showing greater concern for waiting time compared with riding time. Lower-income users, commuters, and females preferred picking up bikes on the way, whereas noncommuters and males opted for detours. The insights gained in this study could provide ideas for solving the problems of demand estimation, parking area siting, and for developing the multimodal synergies of bike sharing to enhance utilization and user satisfaction.