Accelerated land loss and nuisance flooding potential in the Barataria Basin: The impacts of land subsidence, sea-level rise, and tidal dynamics

The Barataria Basin, an ecologically and economically important microtidal interdistributary basin in Louisiana, is experiencing rapid land subsidence and increased coastal inundation. This study quantifies the combined effects of land subsidence, sea-level rise (SLR), and evolving tidal dynamics within this vulnerable basin. Our analysis reveals a significantly amplifed tides throughout the region, further exacerbating the impacts of subsidence and SLR. By 2045, the land area predicted to remain above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) may decrease to approximately 65 % of the area remaining above Mean Sea Level (MSL), indicating that these low-lying regions will likely experience more frequent high-tide inundation events. This escalating flood risk poses a major threat to the Basin's sustainability, emphasizing the importance of integrating tidal dynamics into the adaptive management plans for restoration projects such as the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion (MBSD). The research establishes a benchmark for evaluating the relative contributions of different drivers to coastal change and highlights the growing influence of tidal inundation. These findings offer essential insights to guide management strategies in similarly vulnerable coastal regions worldwide.