Land use change-induced abrupt changes in vegetation and the role of climate factors

被引：0

作者：

Lee, Danbi ^{[1
,2
]}

Park, So-Won ^{[2
]}

Shin, Yechul ^{[2
]}

Kim, Jin-Soo ^{[3
]}

Kam, Jonghun ^{[1
]}

Kug, Jong-Seong ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Pohang Univ Sci & Technol POSTECH, Div Environm Sci & Engn, Pohang, South Korea

[2] Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea

[3] City Univ Hong Kong, Low Carbon & Climate Impact Res Ctr, Sch Energy & Environm, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

来源：

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT | 2025年 / 380卷

基金：

新加坡国家研究基金会;

关键词：

Terrestrial ecosystems; Land use change; Abrupt change; Climate feedback; Leaf area index; Earth system models; REGIONAL CLIMATE; PRODUCTIVITY; SIMULATION; FEEDBACKS; IMPACTS; DRIVEN;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125097

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Land use change (LUC) and climate are major factors constraining terrestrial ecosystem. As these impacts are expected to intensify in the future, it is necessary to quantify the effects of anthropogenic LUC on the terrestrial biosphere and its interactions with regional climate. Here, we identify abrupt decreases in the Leaf Area Index (LAI) from 2015 to 2100, primarily driven by LUC through cropland expansion. We further examine the role of climate change in the identified LAI reductions. In areas experiencing LUC, a negative relationship between LAI and surface temperature leads to a positive feedback, which reinforces decreasing LAI and increasing warming. Moreover, prolonged regional dry conditions and a shift towards drier climate conditions further exacerbate LAI reductions. These climate change impacts have a large spatial variation and cause western South America to show the most pronounced LAI sensitivity to LUC under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 3-7.0 scenario. These results highlight the combined effects of LUC and climate change, leading to future abrupt decreases in vegetation cover.

引用

页数：10

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