Assessing annual carbon emissions and its peak year in the Yangtze river economic belt (2021-2035) through land use/land cover analysis

As a major carbon emitting country, China is committed to peak carbon emissions before 2030. The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), a key economic region in China, plays a significant role in national carbon emissions, making it crucial to study its emissions. This study uses the STIRPAT model and the Grey Model (GM) to analyze the carbon emissions of building land from 2021 to 2035; then the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) is employed to predict the land-use changes over next 15 years, and future emissions from cropland, forest, grassland, water area, and unused land estimated using emission coefficients. Finally, carbon emissions across the YREB are calculated and mapped. The projections reveal that carbon emissions from building land increase and then decrease in the baseline scenario from 2021 to 2035. However, carbon emissions from cropland decline annually. Furthermore, this study identifies 2028 as carbon peak year in YREB area, totaling 8.278 x 108t. Additionally, diminishing total energy consumption and the proportion of some industries may be beneficial for regional carbon reduction. The results of this study are instructive for carbon emission reduction and peak carbon attainment in China.