Development of regional soil desiccation cracking susceptibility assessment model using GIS-based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

Soil desiccation cracking can detrimentally influence the soil mechanical and hydraulic properties and reduce slope soil stability. However, existing studies primarily focused on experimental scale investigations, and there was a lack of quantitative assessment at a regional scale that accounts for multiple influencing factors. In this study, a soil desiccation cracking susceptibility assessment model was developed based on 11 meteorological sensitivity and soil sensitivity indicators by incorporating the experimental findings, unitizing the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and geographic information system (GIS). The model was validated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve based on field inventory data, and applied to assess the regional susceptibility of soil cracking in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China. The results indicate that approximately 44.8% of the study area exhibits moderate susceptibility, predominantly in the northern, northwestern, and central regions. The model achieves an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.734, demonstrating its capability in quantifying soil cracking susceptibility. This study provides a novel framework for large-scale soil cracking susceptibility assessment, and critical spatial information for risk evaluation of slope stability under future extreme climatic conditions.