It's the middle that matters? Income group coalitions in support of redistributive welfare reform

Many well-established theories argue that welfare state policies create, and are created by, support coalitions between different income groups. Empirically, however, relatively little attention has been paid to the coalitions forged by the group that matters most according to these theories: middle-income earners. To address that gap, this article investigates the income differences underlying popular support for two radically opposing redistributive reforms, going in the direction of either a fully means-tested welfare state targeting the poor only or a universal basic income. Using data from the European Social Survey, we confirm the long-standing hypothesis that middle-income earners align with high-income earners against means-tested welfare. Regarding universal basic income, income differences prove considerably smaller. Furthermore, contrary to much prior research, our findings provide little evidence for the prediction from policy feedback theory that the support coalitions underlying these reforms are shaped by the progressivity of countries' tax-and-transfer systems.