Spatial network structure characteristics of carbon emission reduction potential in the transportation industry and its influencing factors in China

The scientific determination of the carbon emission reduction potential (CERP) of the transportation industry, as well as the clarification of its spatial correlation structure and its influencing factors, is of great significance to the promotion of transportation carbon emission reduction management. This paper measures the CERP of the transportation industry in 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019, taking into account the principles of efficiency and equity. It also explores the spatial correlation network characteristics and influencing factors of the CERP by using social network analysis method and quadratic assignment procedure model. The results show that: (1) the CERP of China’s transportation industry is generally high, with an overall pattern of “high in the west and low in the east”. (2) The CERP of China’s provincial transportation exhibits a complex, multi-layered network correlation, with a hierarchical gradient characterized by “dense in the east and sparse in the west”. The hierarchical gradient is characterized by “dense in the east and sparse in the west”. The eastern region is at the core, while the western region is at the periphery. (3) Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the northeast are “net beneficiaries”, while most of the transportation hub provinces in the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Southwest China are “bidirectional spillover”, and most of the inland or remote regions are “net beneficiaries. (4) Spatial adjacency, differences in provincial distances, differences in levels of economic development, differences in transportation structures, differences in levels of informatization, and differences in levels of environmental regulation drive the formation and evolution of spatially connected network structures.