Influencing factors of carbon emissions from final consumption based on LMDI decomposition and Tapio index: The EU 28 as an example

This study applies a combined approach, integrating the LMDI decomposition model and Tapio decoupling model, to analyze carbon emissions across 28 EU member states from 2010 to 2020. It aims to identify the driving factors behind emissions in various consumption sectors and evaluate their decoupling states. Final consumption is categorized into government consumption, household consumption, NPISH consumption, and Gross Fixed Capital Formation consumption. The analysis reveals that government consumption has achieved notable emission reductions, driven primarily by improvements in carbon intensity, though partially offset by economic output and population growth. Household consumption has benefited from the adoption of low-carbon technologies, yet economic output, carbon structure, and demographic changes remain significant contributors to emissions. NPISH consumption and Gross Fixed Capital Formation display similar patterns, with economic distribution factors demonstrating potential for decarbonization. While decoupling progress is most evident in government and household consumption, variability in NPISH and capital formation highlights the need for targeted policies. This study offers key insights into the mechanisms of carbon reduction, providing a theoretical basis for sustainable development policies.