Spatiotemporal assessment of renewable adequacy during diverse extreme weather events in China

被引:0
作者
Jiang, Kai [1 ]
Liu, Nian [1 ]
Wang, Kunyu [1 ]
Chen, Yubing [1 ]
Wang, Jianxiao [2 ]
Liu, Yu [3 ,4 ]
机构
[1] North China Elect Power Univ, State Key Lab Alternate Elect Power Syst Renewable, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Peking Univ, Natl Engn Lab Big Data Anal & Applicat, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
[4] Peking Univ, Inst Carbon Neutral, Beijing, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金; 国家重点研发计划;
关键词
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR; POWER; FREQUENCY; FLEXIBILITY; IMPACTS; MODELS; SYSTEM;
D O I
10.1038/s41467-025-60264-9
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
China has one of the world's largest wind and solar energy capacity worldwide; however, frequent extreme weather events remain major challenges to power systems. This study provides a nuanced examination of power balance issues on seven extreme weather types that occurred from 2020 to 2050. Utilizing an advanced metric for renewable adequacy and a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,089,891 alert records from 2843 counties, the results indicate that both adequacy surplus and deficit coexist in power systems under extreme weather conditions. In 2020, extreme weather led to a reduction in renewable energy by 31.79 TWh. Projections indicate this could rise to 263.61 TWh by 2050, equivalent to the combined annual electricity consumption in 2020 of Beijing and Shanghai, China's two largest cities. An extensive analysis that includes 4 evolutionary paths and 45 load conditions suggests that the average demand for provincial flexibility during extreme weather is projected to peak at 11.03 GW in 2050.
引用
收藏
页数:12
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