Estimating the effects of climate change on home meal replacement consumption in South Korea

Climate change is a significant global concern, affecting ecosystems, human societies, and daily life. South Korea is particularly vulnerable to climate change, experiencing increasing temperatures and more frequent severe weather events. These meteorological changes influence consumers to adjust their consumption patterns, as demonstrated in previous research. This study examines the specific effects of climate change on food consumption patterns at the district level in South Korea, focusing on Home Meal Replacement (HMR) products. While previous studies have explored socioeconomic and demographic factors affecting HMR consumption, this study investigates the influence of meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, and extreme weather events. Spatial autocorrelation and the distribution of HMR consumption patterns among 250 districts were analyzed using Moran’s I test and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis. The global Moran’s I was found to be 0.83, justifying the use of a spatial model. Additionally, a panel spatial error model was employed to assess factors explaining HMR consumption patterns, considering spatial heterogeneity and spillover effects between adjacent areas. The findings confirm that increased average temperature leads to higher consumption of HMR products, while high average humidity is associated with decreased consumption. Moreover, higher consumption patterns are clustered in metropolitan areas, while lower consumption patterns are observed in non-metropolitan areas with higher concentrations of elderly populations. These findings enhance our understanding of how climate change, as well as demographic and socioeconomic factors, influence HMR consumption at the district level in South Korea.