Analytical simulation of sustainable development scenarios for global two-component nuclear power industry. Part 1. Thermal reactor scenarios

Background The share of nuclear power in global electricity production has fallen from 17 to 9% since 2000. Moreover, the issue of limited natural uranium resources and their availability for the industry becomes acute. Aim To analytically determine the possibilities of accelerated and sustainable development of global nuclear power industry (NPI) based on thermal nuclear reactors. Materials and methodsScenarios for the accelerated development of global NPI based on thermal reactors were calculated using analytical methods developed by the authors for predicting the dynamics of natural uranium resource depletion. Results and discussion The paper provides the development dynamics of NPI with only thermal reactors of a VVER type and its share in the global electricity production. Given the uranium reserves for currently operating reactors, 7.9 MtU of existing natural uranium resources appear sufficient to build only 490 (290) reactors with an operating period of 60 (80) years. Doubling natural uranium resources to 16 MtU and increasing the annual rate of thermal reactor construction to 4% could increase the contribution of nuclear power plants to the global electricity generation from 9 to 11-12% by 2035, yet followed with a rapid decline as uranium is depleted. Conclusion The performed analysis demonstrates inadequacy of a long-term and sustainable development for global NPI based only on thermal nuclear reactors. An analysis of development scenarios based on fast reactors will be presented in Part 2.