Modeling Probabilistic Safety Margins in Convective Weather Avoidance Within European Airspace

This paper presents an ensemble of observed safety margins for aircraft deviations due to convective weather in European airspace. Leveraging historical high-resolution traffic and weather radar data from the FABEC and UK-Ireland FAB regions, meaningful lateral margins are determined based on composite reflectivity and echo top data. These margins enable the estimation of probability distribution for safety distances, supporting both deviation discrimination and lateral separation assessment. Cross-validated results compared against standard binary classifiers and deterministic baseline models indicate that the model effectively distinguishes deviations from non-deviations and accurately estimates lateral margins. This framework enhances understanding of pilot decision-making, contributing to more informed air traffic management and aviation safety strategies.