Exploring crime through physical and social neighborhood factors: Greenspace and social disconnection in Los Angeles

Purpose: This study examines how crime varies across Los Angeles census tracts, emphasizing two key neighborhood characteristics: (1) greenspace as a feature of the physical environment and (2) social disconnection as a measure of resident interaction. Methods: We employ negative binomial regression models to assess the effects of greenspace and social disconnection on violent and property crime. Greenspace is measured using two indicators: the percentage of tree canopy and the percentage of grass within census tracts. These measures are analyzed alongside social disconnection and additional neighborhood characteristics. Results: Findings indicate that both tree canopy and grass are associated with lower counts of violent and property crimes. In contrast, social disconnection does not demonstrate a significant relationship with either crime outcome. Additionally, the crime-reducing effect of tree canopy is most pronounced in neighborhoods with high levels of poverty, highlighting the role of socioeconomic conditions in shaping its impact. Conclusion: The findings support routine activities theory and opportunity perspectives, as greenspace effects-most notably for tree canopy-were not only statistically significant but also substantial compared to other common predictors of crime. Given its crime-reducing potential, policymakers may consider greenspace as a strategy for "designing out crime" through urban planning.