Conserving the critically endangered Hangul (Cervus hanglu hanglu)-future distribution and efficiency of protected areas under climate change

Climate change is impacting species distribution at a global scale, posing a significant threat to biodiversity. Special attention needs to be given to threatened species like the Kashmir Red Deer (Cervus hanglu hanglu). Despite being a symbol of global conservation, holistic management is necessary for decision-making and species recovery. A comprehensive study mapping of the potential habitat changes for Hangul in the Dachigam landscape is crucial to enhance conservation efforts. We examined the impacts of expected global warming on the distribution of Hangul by employing a maximum entropy approach to assess species range shift. Hangul was anticipated to be sensitive to upcoming worldwide warming, and it was expected that this would increase its risk of local extinction. In the model, the severity of repercussions from climate change grew as the time horizon increased and decreased the species' suitable habitat. By 2080, predictions indicated a gradual reduction in range or, in some scenarios, the complete loss of habitat, regardless of the potential for Hangul to disperse indefinitely. We estimated that the overall very highly suitable habitat in the protected region is currently 2220 ha, while its vast distribution area in the unprotected zone is 30,445 ha, emphasizing the necessity of establishing corridor connectivity between fragmented populations and promoting conservation efforts. Among various climate conditions, the core-to-edge ratio is at its highest level in the current conditions. Our study reveals two critical findings: Firstly, endangered species unique to a particular region are highly susceptible to the impacts of global warming. Secondly, when evaluating the outcomes of global warming, the highly suitable habitat is expected to shift under predicted climatic changes, with an average altitudinal migration of 700 m. Consequently, conservation strategies must consider the expected regional shifts and are designed with a clear understanding of the accuracy of projecting climate change effects.