Decarbonization dilemmas: Evaluating the impact on energy security and equity in emerging economies

This study explores how decarbonization influences energy security and equity in emerging economies, with a focus on the roles of government effectiveness and political stability. Using a panel dataset covering 2000 to 2022 for 20 countries, we apply fixed-effects, random-effects, and system GMM models to analyse the relationship between decarbonization and energy security and equity. The findings indicate a negative relationship between decarbonization and energy security. Government effectiveness is negatively associated to energy security, implying that strict regulatory policies might, in some cases, create temporary disruptions in the energy sector. However, economic growth shows a positive impact on energy security reinforcing its role in strengthening energy infrastructure. Political stability consistently improves both energy security and equity, highlighting the importance of stable governance in ensuring a smooth energy transition. Additionally, manufacturing value-added positively impacts energy equity but negatively affects energy security, suggesting that industrial expansion, while improving accessibility, may also increase strain on energy supply. These findings highlight the complex trade-offs in energy transitions. While reducing carbon intensity is crucial for long-term sustainability, its short-term effects depend on governance structures, economic conditions, and political stability. The study underscores the importance of balanced policy measures that prioritize energy security and equitable distribution while accelerating the shift toward low-carbon energy sources in emerging economies.