Assessing the impact of climate extreme events and conflicts on internal displacement in Burkina Faso

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between climate extreme events, conflicts, and internal displacement in Burkina Faso. Using monthly data on floods, storms, droughts, violent and non-violent conflicts, and demonstrations from 2018 to 2022, the analysis shows that, unlike storms, floods have affected all regions, while droughts are a recurring phenomenon nationwide. Demonstrations are less frequent, whereas violent and non-violent conflicts are more common in the Sahel and Eastern regions and spread to other areas. Applying a dynamic modeling approach, we identify both short and long run relationships. The results reveal that violent events, droughts and storms are associated with increased internal displacement, whether in the short or long run. We observe that demonstrations initially lead to displacement, but over time, the situation stabilizes. Overall, the results highlight the need for effective conflict management policies and climate measures to mitigate the effects of extreme events in Burkina Faso.