The Effects of a Gang Truce on Gang Violence in a Caribbean Community

Many communities have attempted to reduce gang violence through the use of truces between gangs. Although truces are a popular solution to gang violence, evaluations of their effectiveness are rare. Existing evidence suggests that gang truces might reduce violence in the short-term, but their effects decay rapidly and may even increase gang conflict in the long run. This study examines a truce negotiated between warring gangs in Trinidad and Tobago. Previous research has treated gang truces as a sort of "black box," drawing inferences about their effects on violence without providing a detailed understanding of the causal mechanisms underlying their success or failure. This study uses quantitative and qualitative data that were unavailable in previous research. We examine the gang conflicts that led to the development of the truce, the nature of the truce itself, and the unintended consequences it may have produced. Our findings demonstrate the fragility of gang truces and suggest the conditions under which they are likely to succeed or fail.