Understanding the Legacy of Infectious Diseases: Institutional Quality and its Role in Climate Change Resilience

This study investigates how the historical prevalence of infectious diseases influences vulnerability to climate change through institutional quality. We suppose that countries with a higher historical prevalence of infectious diseases experience greater vulnerability to climate change, but this effect is mitigated by stronger institutional quality, particularly regarding the protection against expropriation risks. We use ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares estimation techniques with data from 145 countries for the period of 1990 to 2015. Our study shows that the historical prevalence of infectious diseases influences, directly and indirectly, vulnerability to climate change. First, the historical prevalence of infectious diseases increases vulnerability to climate change. Second, this increasing effect decreases with the protection against expropriation risks. Furthermore, countries with a history of colonialism, combined with tropical environmental stressors and weaker institutions, are particularly vulnerable to both climate change and infectious diseases.