Addressing Climate Change and Advancing Green Development: Regional Transition Mechanisms for a Sustainable Future in Belt and Road Initiative Nations

This study examines the impact of regional transition and multilateral cooperation mechanisms on green development (GD) and climate change mitigation across 64 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner nations (21 Asia, 22 Europe, 21 Africa and Middle East) from 2006 to 2021. Using advanced econometric methods like two-step system GMM, 2SLS, dynamic fixed effect, and cointegration, the research reveals that regional transition significantly enhances GD, supporting sustainability and climate action. However, specific factors within multilateral cooperation, such as trade, investment, and institutional cooperation, negatively affect GD and climate resilience, while money and finance show insignificant negative impacts. Infrastructure and connectivity positively correlate with GD, and the movement of people has a positive but statistically insignificant effect. The impact of regional transition on GD varies across regions. The study highlights BRI's substantial contribution to GD, both pre- and post-introduction of spillover variables, emphasizing its role in promoting sustainable development, particularly in Asia and Europe. However, differential impacts in Africa and the Middle East raise concerns about the environmental effects of large-scale infrastructure investments. This research provides valuable insights into multilateral partnerships, green development, and climate change, offering theoretical and practical evidence for sustainable futures. It underscores the importance of balancing economic cooperation with environmental resilience, particularly in regions vulnerable to the resource curse. The findings contribute to the discourse on global sustainability, offering policymakers evidence-based strategies to enhance GD and climate adaptation through multilateral initiatives like BRI.