Evolving populist rhetoric: how public approval shapes its employment

Do radical right-wing populist incumbents strategically adjust their rhetoric in response to declining public support during non-electoral periods? While existing literature has studied populist rhetoric during electoral campaigns, less attention has been paid to how incumbent right-wing populist leaders adapt their communication strategies between elections. This paper examines this question through an analysis of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb & aacute;n's official speeches from 2014 to 2020. Using Structural Topic Modeling (STM), the analysis reveals that Orb & aacute;n strategically increases his use of specific populist rhetoric - particularly people-centric messages and anti-immigration or nativist rhetoric - when faced with lower approval ratings, even during non-electoral periods. However, contrary to existing theories suggesting populist rhetoric peaks during campaigns, the study finds no significant difference in Orb & aacute;n's use of right-wing populist rhetoric between electoral and non-electoral periods. These findings suggest that right-wing populist incumbents remain reliant on populist rhetoric throughout their tenure, likely due to voters' expectations of rhetorical consistency and the adaptability of right-wing populist rhetoric. This study contributes to our understanding of how right-wing populist leaders strategically deploy rhetoric to maintain public support while in power.