Quantitative Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Extreme Waves on Marine Aquaculture Based on Physical Vulnerability

Marine aquaculture plays a significant role in China's economic development, accounting for nearly one-third of the aquaculture industry. Tropical Cyclone (TC)-induced extreme waves are one of the primary factors that destabilize the structures of aquaculture net cages, resulting in substantial economic losses. However, current research on quantitative risk assessment in marine aquaculture is limited. To fill this gap, we took Northern East China Sea (NECS) as the study area to examine the potential impact of tropical cyclone-induced extreme waves on marine aquaculture. First, we simulated TC-induced extreme waves between 1979 and 2018 by a tightly coupled ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model and Simulating Waves Nearshore numerical model, and calculated the probability of occurrence and return period of the hazard. Subsequently, by constructing the failure probability of net cage structures under different significant wave heights, we established a physical vulnerability function relating wave height to failure probability. Using the developed physical vulnerability curves, we assessed the risk faced by offshore marine surface aquaculture under extreme typhoon waves with different return periods, and calculated the expected loss for marine aquaculture. The research results reveal that the hazard of extreme typhoon waves exhibited a spatial pattern of higher occurrences in the vicinity of Qinhuangdao, the Shandong Peninsula, and the northern Jiangsu region compared to other coastal regions, and the risk of marine aquaculture is high in the southern part of Liaoning Province, the eastern part of Shandong Province, and the northeastern part of Jiangsu Province. It is crucial to enhance the capacity for disaster response, reduce potential losses, and improve the ability of marine aquaculture to withstand TC-induced extreme waves in these areas.