Unintended consequences of environmental regulation of maritime shipping: Carbon leakage to air shipping

被引:0
作者
Lugovskyy, Volodymyr [1 ]
Skiba, Alexandre [2 ]
Terner, David [3 ]
机构
[1] Indiana Univ, Dept Econ, Wylie Hall,Rm 301,100 S Woodlawn, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA
[2] Univ Wyoming, Dept Econ, 1000 E Univ Ave, Laramie, WY 82071 USA
[3] NERA Econ Consulting, 360 Hamilton Ave, White Plains, NY 10601 USA
关键词
Environmental regulation; Ocean transportation; Air transportation; International Maritime Organization; Pollution leakage; TRADE; EMISSIONS; COSTS; TIME;
D O I
10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104081
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We assess the expected impact of the upcoming International Maritime Organization's CO2 emissions cap on global maritime shipping. Using detailed data on U.S. imports-covering vessels, routes, emissions, and trade-we estimate a model that allows for substitution between maritime, air, and land transport. Our findings show that the cap will drive a shift to more carbon-intensive air and land transport, leading to an overall increase in transportation-related CO2 emissions in both the short- and long-run. Additionally, it will cause significant welfare losses. Our findings support a case for more efficient alternative policy options.
引用
收藏
页数:22
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