Tumor biology characteristics score based on alpha-fetoprotein and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II as a predictor for recurrence and survival after curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter cohort study

Background Current hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) staging systems lack comprehensive assessment of tumor biologic characteristics. This study aimed to develop and validate a tumor biology characteristics score (TBCS) based on alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II) to predict long-term oncologic outcomes after HCC resection. Methods In this multicenter retrospective cohort study, patients who underwent curative resection for HCC between June 2018 and December 2022 were included. TBCS (range, 2-6 points) was calculated by combining preoperative AFP (<20, 20-199, and >= 200 ng/mL) and PIVKA-II levels (<40, 40-399, and >= 400 mAU/mL). Patients were stratified into low (2 points), medium (3-4 points), and high TBCS groups (5-6 points). The primary outcomes were recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Results A total of 695 patients were analyzed; the low, medium, and high TBCS groups comprised 132 (19.0%), 233 (33.5%), and 330 patients (47.5%), respectively. Notably, 5-year RFS was 30.4%, 14.7%, and 9.7%, whereas 5-year OS was 42.1%, 35.5%, and 23.5% for low, medium, and high TBCS groups, respectively (both P <.001). Multivariate analysis identified TBCS as an independent predictor of both RFS (medium TBCS: hazard ratio [HR], 1.583; 95% CI, 1.219-2.057; P =.001; high TBCS: HR, 1.895; 95% CI, 1.473-2.438; P <.001) and OS (high TBCS: HR, 1.781; 95% CI, 1.353-2.343; P <.001). Conclusion The novel TBCS combining AFP and PIVKA-II effectively stratified patients with HCC into distinct prognostic groups after curative-intent resection, independently predicting both RFS and OS. This score may help identify high-risk patients for more intense postoperative recurrence surveillance and receipt of adjuvant therapies. (c) 2025 Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.