Land Surface Phenology Response to Climate in Semi-Arid Desertified Areas of Northern China

In desertified regions, monitoring vegetation phenology and elucidating its relationship with climatic factors are of crucial significance for understanding how desertification responds to climate change. This study aimed to extract the spatial-temporal evolution of land surface phenology metrics from 2001 to 2020 using MODIS NDVI products (NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA) and explore the potential impacts of climate change on land surface phenology through partial least squares regression analysis. The key results are as follows: Firstly, regionally the annual mean start of the growing season (SOS) ranged from day of year (DOY) 130 to 170, the annual mean end of the growing season (EOS) fell within DOY 270 to 310, and the annual mean length of the growing season (LOS) was between 120 and 180 days. Most of the desertified areas demonstrated a tendency towards an earlier SOS, a delayed EOS, and a prolonged LOS, although a small portion exhibited the opposite trends. Secondly, precipitation prior to the SOS period significantly influenced the advancement of SOS, while precipitation during the growing season had a marked impact on EOS delay. Thirdly, high temperatures in both the pre-SOS and growing seasons led to moisture deficits for vegetation growth, which was unfavorable for both SOS advancement and EOS delay. The influence of temperature on SOS and EOS was mainly manifested during the months when SOS and EOS occurred, with the minimum temperature having a more prominent effect than the average and maximum temperatures. Additionally, the wind in the pre-SOS period was found to adversely impact SOS advancement, potentially due to severe wind erosion in desertified areas during spring. The findings of this study reveal that the delayed spring phenology, precipitated by the occurrence of a warm and dry spring in semi-arid desertified areas of northern China, has the potential to heighten the risk of desertification.