The impact of intergenerational educational mobility on fertility intentions: evidence from China

Existing studies mostly examine how individuals' experiences of intergenerational mobility influence their fertility intentions, while research on the effects of regional intergenerational mobility remains limited. This article investigates the impact of regional intergenerational educational mobility (IGM) on fertility intentions using data from the China Family Panel Studies survey (CFPS). The findings indicate a significant positive relationship between IGM and fertility intentions. One of the critical mechanisms might be alleviating parenting cost pressure. This effect is primarily driven by a reduction in parental anxiety and status-seeking behaviours from higher IGM, which decreases household educational expenditures, easing the 'quality-quantity' trade-off in fertility decisions. Besides, the impact of IGM is more pronounced among highly educated individuals, men, and the agricultural population. These results highlight the crucial role of educational equity in shaping fertility preferences. By shifting the focus from individual mobility experiences to the openness of social structures, this study enriches the understanding of low fertility intentions. Current fertility promotion policies in China should also consider the fairness of educational opportunities.