Streamflow variability under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios using QSWAT plus for Subansiri River Basin in Arunachal Pradesh, India

被引：0
作者：
Ghritartha Goswami [1 ]
Ram Kailash Prasad [1 ]
Sameer Mandal [2 ]
机构：
[1] Department of Civil Engineering, North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology, Arunachal Pradesh, Nirjuli
[2] Department of Agricultural Engineering, North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology, Arunachal Pradesh, Nirjuli
来源：
Theoretical and Applied Climatology | 2025年 / 156卷 / 5期
关键词：
CMIP6; QGIS; SSP2-4.5; SSP5-8.5; SWAT+;
D O I：
10.1007/s00704-025-05496-x
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The Subansiri River Basin faces hydrological challenges from climate and land use changes. Limited studies on future SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios hinder effective adaptation, requiring detailed hydrological assessments for sustainable management. Therefore, the present study is focused on the impact of land use, land cover, climate change on the water resources of the Subansiri River Basin, India. The study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) within the QGIS to analyze the variability of streamflow in the Basin. The study identified groundwater recharge as a key determinant, which contributes 69% to the hydrological mass balance. Moreover, the forest and vegetation cover influence water balance by 58.4% and 38%, respectively. Evapotranspiration contributes 23% while, surface runoff accounts for just 6%. Further, the study investigates the impact of climate change on streamflow in the Subansiri River Basin using SWAT+. It utilizes an ensemble of five Global Climate Models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios with CMIP6 dataset. The historical streamflow shows a peak discharge of 2,566 m³/sec in July 2008. Future projections of streamflow indicate increasing discharge, with peaks up to 2,724 m³/sec by 2072 under SSP2-4.5 and 3,680 m³/sec by 2100 under SSP5-8.5. The study also predicts significant monthly variability, with streamflow increases by over five times in the month of May in comparison to its historical observation under the SSP5-8.5 far-future scenario. In contrast, some months are likely to encounter decreased streamflow. Eventually leading to extreme hydrological events that could significantly impact flood management in the Subansiri River Basin. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2025.
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