Comparing International Market Selection Methods Using Export Potential Values for South Africa

Resources for export promotion are scarce, and incorrect market selection can be costly. In the literature, the gravity model, International Trade Center's Export Potential Map, and decision support model all estimate export potential values. Although the same concept is measured, different methodologies are used. This study aimed to compare the rankings assigned to the export potential values by each approach. The results indicated that 45% of the rankings differed by more than five places, while one-third were ranked in the top 10 of only one approach. Given these inconsistencies, alternative approaches for prioritization after identifying export opportunities are recommended.