Assessing Habitat Suitability for Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica Amid Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model

Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica is mainly distributed in the mountains, valleys, and desert edges of Central Asia. It plays a vital role in maintaining ecological stability in arid and semiarid areas. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the habitat suitability of H. rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica, and the key environmental factors affecting its distribution were identified. Additionally, we explored habitat sensitivity to climate change, and provided essential information for the conservation and management of this important subspecies in arid and semiarid regions. Under four different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100, the prediction of habitat suitability and changes in species distribution centroids in the future were simulated. The results revealed that suitable habitats for H. rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica are primarily located in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Altitude (Alt), isothermality (bio3), and slope (Slo) emerged as the main environmental factors. Projections suggest a significant expansion in the total area of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. By 2100, the suitable habitat areas under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios will reach 10,526,800 km2, 12,930,200 km2, 15,449,900 km2 and 14,504,800 km2, respectively. In addition, a slight northwestward shift was observed in the distribution centroid. These findings provide important insights for conservation efforts aimed at protecting H. rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica and supporting its biodiversity. By understanding the factors affecting habitat suitability and predicting changes in climate scenarios, this study provides valuable guidance for developing long-term conservation strategies.