Real-Time Operational Trial of Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Coupled Model for Selected Tropical Cyclones in 2024

被引：1
作者：
Lai, Sin Ki [1 ]
Chan, Pak Wai [1 ]
He, Yuheng [1 ]
Chen, Shuyi S. [2 ]
Kerns, Brandon W. [2 ]
Su, Hui [3 ]
Mo, Huisi [3 ]
机构：
[1] Hong Kong Observ, 134A Nathan Rd, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Washington, Coll Environm, Dept Atmospher & Climate Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
[3] Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
来源：
ATMOSPHERE | 2024年 / 15卷 / 12期
关键词：
tropical cyclone; coupled model; UWIN-CM; rapid intensification; PREDICTION; RESOLUTION; WEATHER; IMPACT;
D O I：
10.3390/atmos15121509
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
An atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled regional model, the UWIN-CM, began its operational trial in real time at the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) in the second half of 2024. Its performance in the analysis of three selected tropical cyclones, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon, Super Typhoon Gaemi, and Super Typhoon Yagi, are studied in this paper. The forecast track and intensity of the tropical cyclones were verified against the operational analysis. It is shown that the track error of the UWIN-CM was lower than other regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in operation at the HKO, with a reduction in mean direct positional error of up to 50% for the first 48 forecast hours. For cyclone intensity, the performance of the UWIN-CM was the best out of the available global and regional models at HKO for Yagi at forecast hours T + 36 to T + 84 h. The model captured the rapid intensification of Yagi over the SCS with a lead time of 24 h or more. The forecast winds were compared with the in situ measurements of buoy and with the wind field analysis obtained from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). The correlation of forecast winds with measurements from buoy and SAR ranged between 65-95% and 50-70%, respectively. The model was found to perform generally satisfactorily in the above comparisons.
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页数：12
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