Recurrence Timing and Risk Following Curative Resection of Colorectal Liver Metastases: Insights From a Hazard Function Analysis

IntroductionThere is no consensus on the optimal surveillance interval for patients undergoing resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). We sought to assess the timing and intensity of recurrence following curative-intent resection of CRLM utilizing a recurrence-free survival (RFS) hazard function analysis.MethodsPatients with CRLM who underwent curative-intent resection were identified from a multi-institutional database. The RFS hazard function was used to plot hazard rates and identify the peak of recurrence over time.ResultsAmong 1804 patients, the median RFS was 19.9 months. In the analytic cohort, the RFS hazard curve peaked at 5.9 months (peak hazard rate: 0.054) and gradually declined, indicative of early recurrence. In subgroup analyses, patients with high and medium tumor burden scores (TBS) had RFS hazard peaks at 4.9 months (peak hazard rate: 0.060) and 5.8 months (peak hazard rate: 0.054), respectively. In contrast, patients with low TBS had a later peak at 7.5 months, with the lowest peak hazard rate of 0.047.ConclusionsThe recurrence peak for CRLM patients occurred approximately 6 months postsurgery, highlighting the need for intensified early postoperative surveillance. Patients with high TBS experienced earlier recurrence, underscoring the importance of close monitoring, particularly during the first 6 months after surgery.