Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity

被引：5

作者：

Swaminathan, Ranjini ^{[1
,2
]}

Schewe, Jacob ^{[3
]}

Walton, Jeremy ^{[4
]}

Zimmermann, Klaus ^{[5
]}

Jones, Colin ^{[6
]}

Betts, Richard A. ^{[4
,7
]}

Burton, Chantelle ^{[4
]}

Jones, Chris D. ^{[4
,8
]}

Mengel, Matthias ^{[3
]}

Reyer, Christopher P. O. ^{[3
]}

Turner, Andrew G. ^{[9
,10
]}

Weigel, Katja ^{[11
,12
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, England

[2] Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Reading, England

[3] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[4] Met Off, Hadley Ctr Climate Sci & Serv, Exeter, England

[5] Rossby Ctr, Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Norrkoping, Sweden

[6] Univ Leeds, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, England

[7] Univ Exeter, Global Syst Inst, Exeter, England

[8] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, England

[9] Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, England

[10] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, England

[11] Univ Bremen, Inst Environm Phys IUP, Bremen, Germany

[12] Inst Phys Atmosphare, Deutsch Zent Luft & Raumfahrt DLR, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

来源：

EARTHS FUTURE | 2024年 / 12卷 / 12期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

climate models; climate sensitivity; regional impacts; future projections; MODEL EVALUATION; PRECIPITATION; RESPONSES; AEROSOLS; FIRE; SATELLITE; PROSPECTS; BLOCKING; MONSOONS; DROUGHT;

D O I：

10.1029/2024EF004901

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest-generation models have high effective climate sensitivities (EffCS). It has been argued these "hot" models are unrealistic and should therefore be excluded from analyses of climate change impacts. Whether this would improve regional impact assessments, or make them worse, is unclear. Here we show there is no universal relationship between EffCS and projected changes in a number of important climatic drivers of regional impacts. Analyzing heavy rainfall events, meteorological drought, and fire weather in different regions, we find little or no significant correlation with EffCS for most regions and climatic drivers. Even when a correlation is found, internal variability and processes unrelated to EffCS have similar effects on projected changes in the climatic drivers as EffCS. Model selection based solely on EffCS appears to be unjustified and may neglect realistic impacts, leading to an underestimation of climate risks.

引用

页数：17

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