Can Agricultural Support and Protection Subsidy Policies Promote High-Quality Development of Grain Industry? A Case Study of China

The issue of grain quality has attracted increasing attention with the gradual growth and stabilization of grain output. We take the successive agricultural support and protection subsidy policies introduced in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment and use a multi-period double-difference model to analyze a panel of data from 298 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2020. Our findings confirm that implementing agricultural support protection subsidy policies has had initial success regarding grain output growth and quality improvement at the point of contradiction. This success is also due to its scale and technology effects, which can ensure that grain output and quality have achieved growth. The level of agricultural machinery also plays a crucial positive role in the impact of the subsidy policy on food production and food security. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the impacts of agricultural support and protection subsidy policies on food quality and yield security differ significantly across different geographic regions, food crop production, and pollutant type levels. Therefore, the positive impact of subsidy policies on the food industry should be better promoted to enhance the sustainability and competitiveness of agriculture.