Schedule Risk Analysis of Prefabricated Building Projects Based on DEMATEL-ISM and Bayesian Networks

The schedule is a critical factor in the development of prefabricated buildings. This paper establishes the schedule risk influencing factors for prefabricated building projects across five dimensions-design, production, transportation, installation, and others-encompassing a total of 14 factors. By integrating DEMATEL and ISM, it constructs a hierarchical network model using expert knowledge and maps it to Bayesian networks (BN), and the node probabilities were calculated using fuzzy set theory combined with the noisy-OR gate model. This DEMATEL-ISM-BN model not only infers the probability of schedule risk occurrence in prefabricated construction projects through causal reasoning and controls the schedule risk of prefabricated construction projects, but it also deduces the posterior probabilities of other influencing factors when a schedule risk occurs through diagnostic reasoning. This approach identifies the key factors contributing to schedule risk and pinpoints the final influencing factors. Research has shown that the three influencing factors of "tower crane worker lifting level", "construction worker component installation technology", and "design changes" significantly affect project progress, providing a new risk assessment tool for prefabricated building project progress, effectively helping enterprises identify potential risks, formulate risk control strategies, improve project success rates, and overall benefits.