Future Changes in Winter-Time Extratropical Cyclones Over South Africa From CORDEX-CORE Simulations

被引:0
|
作者
Chinta, Sandeep [1 ]
Schlosser, C. Adam [1 ]
Gao, Xiang [1 ]
Hodges, Kevin [2 ]
机构
[1] MIT, Ctr Sustainabil Sci & Strategy, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
[2] Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Dept Meteorol, Reading, England
关键词
extratropical cyclones; CORDEX-CORE Africa; South Africa; climate change; future changes; storm severity; DOWNSCALING EXPERIMENT CORDEX; REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS; INCREASING RESOLUTION; STORM TRACKS; MODEL; PRECIPITATION; INTENSITY; WEATHER; EVENTS; BUDGET;
D O I
10.1029/2024EF005289
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) significantly impact mid-latitude weather patterns and are crucial for understanding the societal implications of regional climate variability, climate change, and associated extreme weather. In this study, we examine the projected future changes in winter-time ETCs over South Africa (SA) using simulations from CORDEX-CORE Africa. We utilized three regional climate models, each driven by three different global climate models that simulate both the current climate and a future climate experiencing strong human-induced warming. From these, we assess changes in ETC frequency, track density, intensity, storm severity, and associated rainfall. The results indicate a significant reduction in the aggregate ETC frequency and track density, although track density is projected to increase prominently along the western coastal regions. Models show mixed trends in cyclone intensity projections, but overall results indicate weaker future cyclones, with reduced peak relative vorticity and increased minimum sea level pressure. Examining the Meteorological Storm Severity Index reveals notable regional variations in future storm severity. Average rainfall associated with ETCs is projected to decrease across SA, especially around Cape Town, highlighting a potential shift in the spatial distribution of rainfall with substantial consequences for water supply. We further investigated extreme ETCs (EETCs) and found that the trends for EETCs are generally similar to those for ETCs, with a notable decrease in frequency and regional variations in storm severity. These findings underscore the importance of developing targeted adaptation strategies to address the projected impacts of future ETCs on SA's climate and communities.
引用
收藏
页数:18
相关论文
共 30 条
  • [21] Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations
    Russell H. Glazer
    José Abraham Torres-Alavez
    Erika Coppola
    Filippo Giorgi
    Sushant Das
    Moetasim Ashfaq
    Taleena Sines
    Climate Dynamics, 2021, 57 : 1595 - 1613
  • [22] Projected changes in extreme precipitation indices from CORDEX simulations over Ethiopia, East Africa
    Tegegne, Getachew
    Melesse, Assefa M.
    Alamirew, Tena
    ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2021, 247
  • [23] Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa
    Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.
    Diallo, Ismaila
    Diakhate, Moussa
    Vondou, Derbetini A.
    Mbaye, Mamadou L.
    Haensler, Andreas
    Gaye, Amadou T.
    Tchawoua, Clement
    CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019, 155 (03) : 339 - 357
  • [24] Early-Stage Extratropical Cyclones' Mechanisms Over South America: RCM Added Value and Future Changes in a Warmer Planet
    Gramcianinov, Carolina B.
    Cardoso, Andressa A.
    da Silva, Natalia P.
    Luna-Nino, Rosa
    Castillo, Natalia
    Cavazos, Tereza
    da Rocha, Rosmeri P.
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2025, 45 (01)
  • [25] Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa
    Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo
    Ismaïla Diallo
    Moussa Diakhaté
    Derbetini A. Vondou
    Mamadou L. Mbaye
    Andreas Haensler
    Amadou T. Gaye
    Clément Tchawoua
    Climatic Change, 2019, 155 : 339 - 357
  • [26] Multiscale precipitation variability and extremes over South America: analysis of future changes from a set of CORDEX regional climate model simulations
    Josefina Blázquez
    A. Solman Silvina
    Climate Dynamics, 2020, 55 : 2089 - 2106
  • [27] Multiscale precipitation variability and extremes over South America: analysis of future changes from a set of CORDEX regional climate model simulations
    Blazquez, Josefina
    Solman Silvina, A.
    CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2020, 55 (7-8) : 2089 - 2106
  • [28] Resolution-Sensitive Added Value Analysis of CORDEX-CORE RegCM4-7 Past Seasonal Precipitation Simulations over Africa Using Satellite-Based Observational Products
    Gnitou, Gnim Tchalim
    Tan, Guirong
    Yan Hongming
    Nooni, Isaac Kwesi
    Sian, Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam
    REMOTE SENSING, 2022, 14 (09)
  • [29] Early-Stage Extratropical Cyclones' Mechanisms Over South America: RCM Added Value and Future Changes in a Warmer Planet (vol 45, e8683, 2025)
    Gramcianinov, Carolina B.
    Cardoso, Andressa A.
    da Silva, Natalia P.
    Luna-Nino, Rosa
    Castillo, Natalia
    Cavazos, Tereza
    da Rocha, Rosmeri P.
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2025,
  • [30] Changes in the species composition of a Karoo avifauna over time: a case study from Deelfontein, South Africa
    Dean, W. R. J.
    Milton, S. J.
    OSTRICH, 2008, 79 (02) : 227 - 234